LESSON 12.1: GAMBLING
STUDENT GUIDE © 2008. OSDE Revised 2016
Probability looks at how likely it is for something to happen. For example, if you pull one card out of a deck
of cards, what is the probability you will draw an ace? The answer is 4 out of 52. There are 52 cards in a
deck and 4 aces. Another way to put it: you have a 1 in 13 chance because 52/4 = 13. If you have a 1 in 13
chance of drawing an ace, then you have a 12/13 chance of NOT drawing an ace. The probability of drawing
an ace is relatively low.
If you decide to play a Pick 3 lottery game where you have to guess the exact three numbers, your
probability of winning is 1 in 1000. You can figure this out by noting that the probability of getting the first
number right is 1/10. The probability of getting all three right is then 1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 = 1/1000.
Independent Versus Dependent Events
Gambling and games of chance rely on the concept of
independent and dependent events. Flipping a coin is an
example of an independent event. The probability of getting
heads does not change, regardless of how many times you flip
the coin. After all, there are only two sides to the coin.
When the coin is flipped and the first seven flips are heads,
the eighth flip still has the probability of 1 in 2 of being heads –
or being tails. Each coin flip is independent of the other, and
the probability of each flip is the same, no matter how many
times you flip it
Most card games are different. When playing Poker or Blackjack, each successive hand is dependent on the
previous ones. For example, you have a 4 in 52 chance of getting an ace at the beginning of the game. If
the dealer gives you an ace on the first card dealt, the next person has a 3 in 51 chance of getting an ace as
the next card dealt because there are only four aces in one deck of cards. Once you get an ace, it is not
available for you or the next person to get it again during the game.
When playing Poker, the hand with the highest payout is a royal flush which consists of a 10, jack, queen,
king, and ace in the same suit. It is the best hand is because you have the lowest probability of getting one.
You can calculate your odds of getting a royal flush by following these steps:
You need five spades, hearts, diamonds, or clubs. The probability of getting the first card you
need is 5 in 52.
To get the second card you need in the same suit, the probability is 4 in 51. Getting the third
card is a probability is 3 in 50; the fourth card is 2 in 49, and the last card is 1 in 48.
The probability of being dealt a royal flush is rather small. In fact, it is:
The odds of winning in most games
of chance are pretty low,
regardless of much fun people are
having in those commercials. As a
general rule, the higher the odds,
the higher the potential payout.