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2010] MANDATORY MINIMALISM 31
• Government actors may be unrealistically optimistic about the ability of
such laws to reduce crime or prevent future tragedies, preferring the
strictness of a mandatory minimum that supposedly eliminates all risk of
further offending, rather than a more nuanced and economically sensible
option that reduces, but does not eliminate, the perceived danger.
134
• Once adopted, official positions on a mandatory minimum may be
difficult to change, even when confronted with new information and
experiences. Politicians may simply alter their attitudes and beliefs to
minimize any dissonance between the goals of mandatory sentencing and
the law’s actual effects.
135
• Moreover, the sentencing status quo might be seen as preferable, if not
inevitable,
136
while the perceived costs of eliminating mandatory
minimums may appear ominous and far greater than any benefits,
particularly if the costs (e.g., reduced prosecutorial leverage) will accrue
sooner than the benefits (e.g., lower prison expenses).
137
JUDGMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY, supra note 132, at 11-14, 163-208; Itzhak Gilboa & David
Schmeidler, Case-Based Decision Theory, 110 Q.J.
ECON. 605 (1995).
134
See, e.g., Sunstein, Behavioral Analysis, supra note 133, at 1182-84, 1191 (discussing
over-optimism, certainty, and ambiguity); see also Christine Jolls, Behavioral Economic Analysis
of Redistributive Legal Rules, 51 V
AND. L. REV. 1653, 1658-63 (1998); Jennifer Arlen, The
Future of Behavioral Law and Economics, 51 V
AND. L. REV. 1765, 1773-75 (1998); Sunstein,
Selective Fatalism, supra note 133, at 807-09; Neil D. Weinstein, Optimistic Biases About
Personal Risks, 246 S
CIENCE 1232 (1989); Craig R. Fox & Amos Tversky, Ambiguity Aversion
and Comparative Ignorance, 110 Q.J.
ECON. 585 (1995).
135
See, e.g., Cass R. Sunstein, Legal Interference with Private Preferences, 53 U. CHI. L. REV.
1129, 1146-47 (1986) (discussing cognitive dissonance). See generally ELLIOT ARONSON, THE
SOCIAL ANIMAL (7th ed. 1995); JON ELSTER, SOUR GRAPES (1983); LEON FESTINGER, A
THEORY OF COGNITIVE DISSONANCE (1957).
136
See, e.g., Sunstein, Behavioral Analysis, supra note 133, at 1185, 1191-92 (discussing
hindsight and status quo biases); see also Sunstein, Selective Fatalism, supra note 133, at 809;
Russell Korobkin, The Status Quo Bias and Contract Default Rules, 83 C
ORNELL L. REV. 608
(1998); Jeffrey J. Rachlinski, A Positive Psychological Theory of Judging in Hindsight, 65 U.
CHI. L. REV. 571 (1998); Marcel Kahan & Michael Klausner, Path Dependence in Corporate
Contracting: Increasing Returns, Herd Behavior and Cognitive Biases, 74 W
ASH. U. L.Q. 347,
359-62 (1996); William Samuelson & Richard Zeckhauser, Status Quo Bias in Decision Making,
1 J.
RISK & UNCERTAINTY 7 (1988).
137
See, e.g., Sunstein, Behavioral Analysis, supra note 133, at 1179-81, 1184-85, 1193-94
(discussing endowment effect, loss aversion, inter-temporal utility bias, and hindsight bias); see
also Arlen, supra note 134, at 1771-72; Colin Camerer, Individual Decision Making, in T
HE
HANDBOOK OF EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS 587, 665-70 (John H. Kagel & Alvin E. Roth eds.,
1995); R
ICHARD H. THALER, THE WINNER’S CURSE: PARADOXES AND ANOMALIES OF
ECONOMIC LIFE 63-78 (1992); RICHARD H. THALER, QUASI RATIONAL ECONOMICS (1991);
Daniel Kahneman et al., Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias,
5 J.
ECON. PERSP. 193, 203 (1991); Daniel Kahneman et al., Experimental Tests of the
Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem, 98 J.
POL. ECON. 1325 (1990); Daniel Kahneman &
Amos Tversky, Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk, 47 E
CONOMETRICA 263,
274-89 (1979); Daniel Kahneman, New Challenges to the Rationality Assumption, in
THE
RATIONAL FOUNDATIONS OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR (Kenneth Arrow et al. eds., 1996); Jolls et
al., supra note 132, at 1538-41; David Laibson, Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting, 112
Q.J.
ECON. 443 (1997); George Loewenstein & Richard H. Thaler, Intertemporal Choice, in